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The Success Ratio: How to Fix Tanking in Baseball By Ian Brauer |
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What is the Success Ratio? Simply put, the Success Ratio is a way to objectively
quantify sustained winning and losing from MLB franchises. By itself, the
Success Ratio does not do anything as it is merely a metric. However, by
providing a measure for long-term competitiveness, Major League Baseball
would have an objective standard which it could use to punish teams that tank.
Punishing teams that tank could be done in two ways: First, you could
financially punish consistently non-competitive teams, which would prevent
teams from remaining profitable while fielding consistently non-competitive
teams. Second, you could competitively punish consistently non-competitive
teams, which would cause tanking to cease being a functional long-term competitive
strategy. The Success Ratio could also be used to reward competitive teams,
which would increase the opportunity cost of fielding a non-competitive team. How is the Success Ratio Calculated? The Success Ratio
ranges from 100 (winning the World Series every year) to -100 (losing 90 plus
games every year). It uses data from the past ten seasons, with special emphasis
on the last three seasons, so that winning a world series one year doesn’t
give a team license to be non-competitive for the next nine. See the section
to the right for the specific points breakdown. |
Success Ratio Points Breakdown (per event) World Series win in last 3 seasons: 10 points World Series win in last 10 points: 2 points Playoff Appearance in last 3 seasons: 6
points Playoff Appearance in last 10 seasons: 1
point .500 or above in last 3 seasons: 4 points .500 or above in last 10 seasons: 1 point 90 or more losses in last 3 seasons1:
-20 points 90 or more losses in last 10 seasons2:
-4 points 1. Using last 3 full seasons, not including
60-game 2020 season 2. 34 or more losses used for 60-game 2020
season |
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What is tanking? In baseball, there is a wide discrepancy between the
richest and poorest teams. The team with the highest projected payroll for
2023 is the New York Mets at $353 million. The lowest projected payroll, the
Oakland A’s, is just $58 million, or just 16% of the Mets spending. 15 teams,
or half the league, are projected to spend less than half of what the Mets
do, including 5 teams who are projected to spend less than a quarter of what
the Mets spend. Poorer teams from smaller markets simply don’t have the
resources to compete without squeezing every ounce of value from every dollar. The best value in baseball comes from young players. Before a
player has played 6 full seasons in the major leagues, their income is capped
by the players union collective bargaining agreement. After 6 years, the
players become free agents and can play for whatever team is willing to pay
them the most. So, for teams with less money, the only way to afford good
players is to get them young. The way to get young players is through the
draft, and the worst teams get the best draft picks. So, smaller teams will
stay purposefully non-competitive for years on end until they accumulate
enough young talent to be competitive. This process is often called
“rebuilding” or “tanking.” However, tanking is not required for a small market team
to succeed. The truth of the matter is, while all teams can’t afford to match
the Mets’ payroll, every MLB owner has the means to field a competitive team
and still turn a profit. So why tank instead of trying to remain competitive?
To save money. Major League Baseball finances are structured in a way that
all teams have a high revenue floor. The economic mechanisms that benefit
teams who make their fans happy, TV contracts and ticket sales, are shared; So,
a tanking team who alienates its fans will see very little financial
consequence for it, thanks to the shared revenue from more successful teams. As long as it remains a functional long-term competitive
strategy, owners will cut costs under the guise of rebuilding. |
Baseball’s biggest tankers
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Check
out the article that originally mentioned the Success
Ratio, written by Brittany Ghiroli from The Athletic |
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Disclaimer: Ian Brauer takes full responsibility for the
information posted. The information on this page represents that of Ian
Brauer and not the University of California, Sacramento |
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